In the stock market, good years include bad days. They even include bad quarters. Friday, March 22nd was a bad day for the S&P 500, declining nearly 2% in a single day. This bad day was preceded by an abysmal fourth quarter which saw a 13.5% decline. Market declines like this cause all types of investor reactions, most of them to the investor’s detriment.

As we look back at the stock market performance with US stocks outperforming non-US stocks in recent years, some investors have again turned their attention towards the role that global diversification plays in their portfolios.

News of an escalating trade war between the United States and China dominated headlines late last week as both countries formally imposed substantial tariffs on one another. In response to the Trump administration’s 25 percent tariff on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods (largely industrial and technology products), the Chinese government levied tariffs of equal size on certain U.S. goods (largely agricultural products). The U.S. government is expected to launch a second round of tariffs on China, worth another $16 billion, in the next few weeks. Then on July 11, the White House announced it is preparing yet another wave of tariffs targeting China, this time a 10 percent levy on consumer and other goods worth $200 billion, to go into effect sometime after August 30.

There has been much discussion in the news recently about new nominal highs in stock indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.

When markets hit new highs, is that an indication that it’s time for investors to cash out? History tells us that a market index being at an all-time high generally does not provide actionable information for investors. For evidence, we can look at the S&P 500 Index for the better part of the last century.

Happy New Year!  Patrick Bohen provided his insights to David Robinson of The Buffalo News for a New Year's Day article covering what 2017 may hold in store for the stock market. 

What will 2017 bring for stocks? Local investment advisers make predictions.

By David Robinson

As Donald Trump goes, so goes the stock market.

That, in a nutshell, is how local investment advisers see 2017 shaping up.

The president-elect, if he’s able to deliver on some of his pro-business tax and regulation promises, could be a powerful force on Wall Street in 2017. If he can’t, Trump’s failure to cut taxes, ease regulations could lead to widespread disappointment among investors who now are counting on his promises becoming reality.

The Information Age has changed our lives. It has never been easier to access information. Good things have come from this technology: connecting with friends across the globe, communicating with colleagues more efficiently, learning about unusual subjects.

With the recent spate of positive economic news, highlighted by the strong jobs numbers for both October and November, all signs point toward the Federal Reserve raising the federal funds target rate 25 basis points from 0–0.25 percent to 0.25–0.50 percent. Based on federal funds futures, the market is assigning a roughly 76 percent probability of a federal funds increase. Given that this would be the first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve since 2006, many clients are beginning to ask, “Should we stay short and wait for the Fed to raise interest rates before investing?” 

This past October, as I was flying back from Florida, I was trying to wrap my mind around how a family birthday party turned into tears and surprise over my Mom suggesting that she and my Dad wanted to move in with my brother and his family.  Shortly after returning to Buffalo, I called my mom to thank her for having the courage to start a conversation about later life planning.  I asked what had caused her to make a 180 degree turn, going from ‘We will take care of each other’, to having an honest discussion with the family. The bottom line was that she was afraid; afraid of running out of money and maybe of not having options.    

Since I had plans to visit Florida again, I asked my parents if they would like some help looking over their finances and talking about what was on their mind.  They surprised me with how eager they were to meet and forwarded to me their financial information, including budget, investments and last tax return.  It is hard to imagine the day will come when I may have to go to my kids for help. As I looked over my parent’s information, I did so fully aware that my parents are very independent and have a stubborn pride (that’s where I get it); therefore to be helpful I needed to be both honest and gracious.